Build a macro regime monitor

A macro regime monitor answers one question from the official record: is the US macro backdrop expanding, neutral, or contracting? That answer is one request - GET /api/v1/macro/regime computes the classification server-side from three disclosed votes, so every consumer gets the same label from the same inputs instead of hand-rolling a reduction step. The decomposition axes (growth, inflation, curve) remain below as optional context reads.

What you build

One request produces the machine-readable regime label plus the three votes behind it - liquidity, credit, and policy - each the sign of a 13-week change judged against a measured neutral band. All responses use the standard data + meta envelope described in the Quickstart. Replace YOUR_API_KEY with your key.

1. Pull the regime

Response (truncated):

{"data": {
  "regime": "neutral",
  "as_of": "2026-08-07",
  "votes": [
    {"name": "liquidity", "vote": "neutral",
     "inputs": {"route": "/api/v1/macro/net-liquidity",
       "window_weeks": 13, "change": 9.482,
       "unit": "usd_bn", "neutral_band": 75.0}},
    {"name": "credit", "vote": "neutral",
     "inputs": {"route":
         "/api/v1/fred/series/NFCICREDIT",
       "change": -0.027, "unit": "index_points",
       "neutral_band": 0.06,
       "note": "index rises when credit TIGHTENS"}},
    {"name": "policy", "vote": "neutral",
     "inputs": {"route": "/api/v1/bis/cb-rates/US",
       "change": 0.0, "unit": "pct_points",
       "neutral_band": 0.125}}],
  "vote_counts": {"expanding": 0, "neutral": 3,
    "contracting": 0, "unavailable": 0},
  "window_weeks": 13},
 "meta": {"source":
   "/api/v1/macro/net-liquidity + /api/v1/fred/series/NFCICREDIT + /api/v1/bis/cb-rates/US"}}

2. Read the votes

Each vote is the sign of a 13-week change with an INCLUSIVE neutral band:

liquidity - the delta_13w of US net liquidity (Fed balance sheet minus the Treasury General Account minus overnight reverse repo, from /api/v1/macro/net-liquidity). Band 75 USD bn. Liquidity added beyond the band votes expanding.

credit - the 13-week change of the Chicago Fed credit-conditions subindex (NFCICREDIT). The index RISES when credit tightens, so its sign is inverted: a rising index votes contracting. Band 0.06.

policy - the 13-week change of the US policy rate from the Bank for International Settlements dataset. Hikes vote contracting, cuts expanding. Band 12.5 bp - one half of a standard 25 bp step, so any real move clears it.

The liquidity and credit bands are the middle tercile of each series' own measured 13-week move distribution (801 weeks since 2011 and 2,887 weeks since 1971 respectively) - a third of history reads neutral by construction, so no class is rare or common by accident.

3. Trust the fold

The regime is a simple majority: two or more votes in one direction set it; anything else is neutral. One vote can never tip the label. A vote whose input is unavailable arrives as vote: null with an unavailable_reason - it is never fabricated - and if fewer than two votes can be cast the endpoint answers 503 rather than classify from a single input. Every vote carries its route, observation dates, the change and the band it was judged against, so any consumer can reproduce the label from public data.

Re-run the request on a schedule (the response is cached server-side for six hours) and alert when regime flips or any single vote changes direction.

Decomposition: the growth / inflation / curve axes

The classification above rests on the liquidity / credit / policy votes. The growth, inflation and curve axes are separate context reads, and each is one request:

Growth - real GDP year over year: GET /api/v1/fred/series/GDPC1?limit=3&units=pc1. Positive and near trend reads expansion.

Inflation - CPI year over year vs the 2 percent objective: GET /api/v1/fred/series/CPIAUCSL?limit=3&units=pc1, with UNRATE as the labor-side sanity check.

Curve - the pre-computed 10-year minus 2-year spread: GET /api/v1/fred/series/T10Y2Y?limit=3 (negative = the classic inversion signal), cross-checked against the full daily par curve at GET /api/v2/fixed-income/treasury/yield-curve.

These axes describe WHERE the economy is; the regime endpoint's votes track which way the financial backdrop is MOVING over the last 13 weeks. When the two disagree - expansion-level growth with contracting liquidity and credit votes, say - the disagreement itself is the signal.

Going further

Sugra Macro direction - net liquidity, the release calendar, the central-bank meeting calendar, BIS policy rates for every country and the rest of the official record.

Rate limits and errors - one call per refresh in place of the six this recipe used to need.

Quickstart - the response envelope, authentication and rate-limit headers used throughout this recipe.

Build a macro regime monitor

What you build#

1. Pull the regime#

2. Read the votes#

3. Trust the fold#